Liverpool v Arsenal: Two teams with opposite problems

What a day to be alive — Liverpool v Arsenal at Anfield today, what a treat. This game should have something in store for us, as both are looking to establish themselves as title contenders pushing into the second international break. Liverpool have not lost to Arsenal since 2024, and do not look to change that today.

Anfield, 16:30 GMT — 11:30am on the east coast. Second against fifth, and the two sides arrive with problems that are almost exact mirrors of each other.

Where they stand

	Liverpool	Arsenal
Position	5th	2nd
Points	15	21
Goals scored	11	13
Goals conceded	8	5
xG	11.83	14.93
xGA	10.70	8.12
xG difference	+1.14	+6.81
Clean sheets	4	5

Data: Understat

The trend that decides this game

Liverpool have been a different team depending on the postcode.

	Home	Away
Games	4	4
Points	5 of 12	10 of 12
Goals	4–5	7–3
xG	5.12	6.72
xGA	6.70	4.00
xG difference	−1.58	+2.72

Data: Understat

One win in four at Anfield. Ten points from twelve on the road. That is not a small sample quirk in one direction and not the other — the underlying numbers say the same thing the results do.

Arsenal have the same disease, the other way round

	Home	Away
Games	4	4
Points	12 of 12	9 of 12
Goals	9–2	4–3
xG	9.27	5.67
xGA	2.91	5.21
xG difference	+6.36	+0.46

Data: Understat

At the Emirates they are the best team in the country: four wins from four, nine scored, two conceded. On the road they are +0.46 by expected goals — essentially an even team. Their only defeat of the season came away, 3-0 at Brighton, and three of the five goals they have conceded all season came in that single afternoon. Take that game out and Arsenal have conceded two goals in seven matches.

Territory: the most worrying number

A deep completion is a pass finished within about twenty yards of goal. It is a decent proxy for who actually spends time in dangerous areas rather than who simply has the ball.

	Liverpool	Arsenal
Deep completions won	6.6	12.1
Deep completions allowed	8.4	4.2
Ratio	0.79	2.85
PPDA (their press)	8.62	9.41
Opponent PPDA	11.52	12.99

Data: Understat

Liverpool press harder — a PPDA of 8.62 against Arsenal’s 9.41 means fewer opposition passes between Liverpool defensive actions. The pressing is not the problem. What happens when the press is beaten is.

Who hurts you, and it is not who you would guess

Bukayo Saka is unavailable. He has not played since going off inside ten minutes at Bayern Munich in the Champions League, and reports on his return date disagree — one has him missing six weeks, Arsenal’s own line is that they want him back “as quick as possible”, possibly before the next international break. Either way he does not play today, and he is the single biggest absence on either team sheet: second of 114 midfielders in the league for non-penalty xG per 90, fifth for the quality of chance he gets on the ball.

So the threat comes from the back line. For a fourth week running.

Ben White is first of all 110 defenders in the division for assists per 90. Not top ten. First.

Gabriel is fourth of 110 defenders for non-penalty xG per 90, and he is a centre-half. One goal, 2.10 xG — a standing set-piece problem.

Riccardo Calafiori is fourth of 110 for non-penalty xG plus xA per 90, with a goal and two assists from left-back.

And in midfield, Declan Rice is fourth of 114 for assists per 90 with four of them, while Martin Odegaard sits eighth for xGChain — the best measure of how often a player is involved in a move that ends in a shot.

What Liverpool have

Isak is second of 34 forwards for goals per 90 and fourth for finishing above his expected goals. Wirtz is third of 114 midfielders for key passes, and Gakpo third for assists. The attacking pieces are there — the issue has been getting them into the right areas at home.

We have fielded the strongest possible XI by the looks of it today, and I want to see the wingers create some joy and play extremely direct. I want physical duels from our centre-backs and full-backs, and overlapping runs on the outside with the wingers as well. We should be able to hold onto the ball even with Arsenal wanting to dominate possession. Set pieces will be key, as we need to make sure we are taking advantage and setting up correctly for theirs.

Team news

Muñoz and Szoboszlai are doubts. Both picked up knocks at Brentford a fortnight ago. Iraola: “They have a chance. But I don’t know for sure if they will be involved or not.”

Still out: Jeremie Frimpong with a muscle injury, plus the long-term absences of Conor Bradley, Hugo Ekitike and Giovanni Leoni.

On selection, Iraola was clear that the rotation continues: “We are changing a lot from game to game and I think we will continue this approach, because I think it’s going well.”

Arsenal are without Saka, and Max Dowman is suspended for three matches after a red card in their Carabao Cup exit to Fleetwood Town. Noni Madueke is being assessed after missing that game. Rice, Calafiori and Tzolis have all trained and are expected to be available.

The starting XI

Liverpool: Alisson; Araújo, Van Dijk, Jacquet, Kerkez; Mac Allister, Nyoni; Barcola, Wirtz, Gakpo; Isak

Substitutes: Mamardashvili, Gomez, Endo, Szoboszlai, Tsimikas, Muñoz, Gravenberch, Koumas, Ngumoha

Three things jump out.

Both doubts made it. Szoboszlai and Muñoz are fit enough for the bench, which is the best possible answer to Thursday’s “I don’t know for sure if they will be involved.”

Alisson returns and Mamardashvili drops to the bench, the reverse of the cup tie. So does Gravenberch, four days after the lowest rating on the pitch against Chelsea and a saved penalty in the shootout.

Trey Nyoni starts in the league, alongside Mac Allister in a two. After the cup run that is a real promotion, and it comes in the biggest home game of the season so far. In front of them the full attack is available at last — Barcola, Wirtz and Gakpo behind Isak.

Arsenal: Raya; Timber, Konsa, Gabriel, Calafiori; Guimarães, Rice; Madueke, Ødegaard, Tzolis; Havertz

Substitutes: Kepa, Ben White, Mosquera, Hincapié, Eze, Zubimendi, Merino, Lewis-Skelly, Gyökeres.

And here the preview has to correct itself. Ben White starts on the bench. Everything written above about him being the first of all 110 defenders in the division for assists per 90 is still true, and it is still the most striking number either side can show — but Jurriën Timber plays right-back instead, so it is not a threat Liverpool have to deal with from the first whistle. He is there to come on.

What survives is the other half of it. Gabriel and Calafiori both start, fourth of 110 defenders for non-penalty xG and fourth for non-penalty xG plus xA respectively. The goals still come from the back line, just from two of the three rather than all of them.

Havertz leads the line, not Gyökeres, who is among the substitutes — so neither of the two predictions doing the rounds this morning had it right. With Saka out and William Saliba a long-term absentee with a back problem, Arsenal are missing their best attacker and their best defender, and have their most dangerous full-back in reserve.

TREY FUCKING NYONI time. What a time to get his very first Premier League start, at home against Arsenal. Young Trey has been dreaming of this moment his whole career and it comes today at Anfield. This is a merit-based start, as Trey has bossed the midfield every time he steps onto the pitch, and I am going to be rooting hard for him today. Nice to see Sobo and Muñoz get added to the bench, as we will have some attacking options for later on in the game. Overall a very strong XI to take on Arsenal this afternoon. I want to see a full rotation of players at half-time if it is not working, and I trust anyone that Iraola decides to bring on at that time.

Prediction

1-1. Barcola and Havertz goals, ends in a tie.