Liverpool v Villarreal: The best side in Spain at not scoring

European nights return to Anfield on Tuesday, 20:00 BST — 3pm on the east coast — with Villarreal the visitors for the third game of the league phase. Liverpool arrive on the back of a 2-1 win at Brentford that ended the Bees’ unbeaten start, and with two wins from two in Europe they sit fifth of 36. Villarreal are 14th on three points.

Vibes are high with the Reds as we return to Champions League action against Villarreal. I have great respect and admiration for Villarreal — players, fanbase and stadium alike. I enjoy watching their games, and they have a good style of play that suits them well in La Liga. They create many chances without being able to convert many of them, but such an attacking team is always dangerous. Liverpool will need to get stuck in at multiple points this game to ensure they walk away with a three-point victory at home in front of Anfield.

Villarreal create plenty. They just don’t score it.

This is the thing worth knowing about Tuesday’s opponents, and it is stark. Across nine La Liga games Villarreal have generated 22.43 xG — 2.49 a game — and scored 13. No side in Spain is further below what their chances were worth.

Strip out the penalties and it reads worse: 10 goals from 20.20 non-penalty xG. Three of their thirteen have come from the spot.

The table punishes them for it. Understat’s expected points model has Villarreal on 16.7 points from those nine games. They have 9 — a gap of 7.7, again the biggest in La Liga, and again close to double the next team along. On chances created they belong in the European places. They are 12th.

Their last outing is the whole story in one match: a 0-0 at home to Elche in which they created 2.30 xG and allowed 0.22.

I believe this form from Villarreal will soon begin to round out and they will convert more of their chances as time goes on. They have had a rocky start to the year, but believe me when I say they will be able to turn it around in time to make a formidable opponent. I expect many wide open portions of this game, and for it to be unsettled a majority of the time, when the ball is in open play and moving around.

Where the chances come from

Almost all of it is open play: 9 goals from 16.42 xG in open play, a shortfall of seven and a half goals on its own. They are not a set-piece side the way Brentford were — one goal from 2.48 xG of corners, nothing at all from free kicks or other set-piece situations.

They do get into dangerous areas constantly. By my count of Understat’s shot data, Villarreal have created 29 shots worth 0.3 xG or more in nine league games, against 13 allowed. The chances are there. The finishing isn’t.

Player	Min	G	xG	A	xA
Alberto Moleiro	664	2	3.42	3	3.03
Ayoze Pérez	605	1	4.58	3	1.31
Georges Mikautadze	488	2	4.05	1	1.27
Gerard Moreno	405	2	2.80	0	1.75
Nicolas Pepe	526	3	1.19	0	0.97
Pape Gueye	712	3	1.43	0	0.43

Data: Understat

Ayoze Pérez has one goal from 4.58 xG. Mikautadze has two from 4.05. Between the two of them that is more than five goals’ worth of chances that have not gone in. Alberto Moleiro is the one making them: two goals, three assists, and 23 key passes, the most at the club.

The exception is Nicolas Pepe, three goals from 1.19 xG — the only Villarreal attacker beating his numbers, and he has missed their last three matches with an eye problem.

We need our defence to be solid in this showing, as we have injuries in multiple positions and don’t have the luxury of subbing on someone who has not had much experience of these Champions League nights. I am not as concerned about generating attacks, as Villarreal are a slightly more open La Liga side in general.

Iraola against his own assistant

Villarreal are managed by Íñigo Pérez, who played alongside Andoni Iraola at Athletic Club and then worked as his assistant at Rayo Vallecano in 2022-23. He took the Rayo job himself afterwards and reached the 2025-26 Conference League final, losing 1-0 to Crystal Palace.

Iraola on him this week: “We’ve known each other since the academy years at Athletic Club.” Pérez on the approach at Anfield: “without fear, with courage.”

Cut both ways — nothing Iraola does will surprise him, and it will be a classic chess match between the two coaches.

Another old friend in goal

Two games running. Last week it was Caoimhín Kelleher at the Gtech; on Tuesday it is Peter Gulácsi, now 36, who sat on the Liverpool bench 51 times between 2008 and 2013 without ever making a competitive appearance.

Villarreal’s record against English clubs in the Champions League proper is one they will be keen to mention as little as possible: no wins in 16 — six draws, ten defeats — and six straight losses against English opposition. The four previous meetings with Liverpool all came in European semi-finals: 3-1 on aggregate in the 2016 Europa League, 5-2 in the 2022 Champions League.

Worth noting on the other side of it: beating Napoli 3-1 a week ago was Villarreal’s first win in 13 Champions League matches.

Liverpool: Europe has been the easy part

Two games, two wins, eight scored, four conceded, fifth in the league phase. The 2-1 at Brentford lifted the Reds to fifth in the Premier League too, on 12 points.

The oddity is the venue. In the league Liverpool have two points from three at Anfield, with two goals scored and five conceded, and all three of their league wins have come away from home. In Europe, Anfield has been fine — Atlético were beaten 2-1 here in September.

Two Liverpool numbers have moved sharply this month: Wirtz now ranks second of 111 midfielders in the league for key passes per 90, and Isak is second of 29 forwards for goals per 90 after his winner at Brentford. Both of them start tonight on the bench — which tells you how Iraola is reading a fixture list with Brighton on Sunday.

A note on the Brentford preview, since it’s worth marking when the numbers call one right: the warning there was that Brentford’s defenders were a genuine goal threat and that marking the forwards would not be enough. Keane Lewis-Potter headed them in front on 43 minutes.

The home form needs to return to winning ways tonight. The lads will have all of Anfield behind them, and a proper performance will surely get the crowd going behind the Reds and hopefully carry them through the night.

Team news

Out: Jeremie Frimpong has a new muscle injury and Iraola says it will be “difficult” to have him back before the November international break. Dominik Szoboszlai has suffered a recurrence of the hamstring problem — Iraola has not worsened the timeline but says “we need more patience with him.” Conor Bradley, Hugo Ekitike and Giovanni Leoni all remain sidelined. Federico Chiesa and Wataru Endo were not included in the league-phase squad, so neither is available in Europe.

Back: Ryan Gravenberch returns, having sat out the Premier League suspension.

Villarreal: Tajon Buchanan returned to training on Monday after three games out with a hamstring injury. Nicolas Pepe has missed the same three matches with an eye problem.

Liverpool (4-3-3): Alisson; Araújo, Van Dijk, Jacquet, Tsimikas; Gravenberch, Mac Allister, Nyoni; Ngumoha, Koumas, Gakpo.

Substitutes: Mamardashvili, Woodman, Gomez, Kerkez, Wirtz, Isak, Barcola, Chambers, McConnell, Danns, Laffey.

This is a heavily rotated side. Isak, Wirtz and Barcola are all on the bench, and Trey Nyoni, Lewis Koumas and Rio Ngumoha all start — the three who have been given their minutes in Europe this season. Tsimikas keeps the left-back spot ahead of Kerkez, and Gravenberch comes straight back in after serving his domestic suspension. Four of the eleven substitutes are academy players.

So the game asks the opposite question to the one the Brentford win answered. There, the first-choice front line finished a tight away game. Here it is the young side against a Villarreal team that creates 2.49 xG a game and cannot finish — and the bench holds a forward on 0.89 goals per 90 if it is still level late on.

Villarreal had not published their XI at the time of writing.

Prediction

3-1, with Rio, Koumas and Wirtz on the scoresheet.