Liverpool v Manchester City: Good vs Evil

What a three-week break from the Prem. The city slickers down the road (not even the other red ones) have been found guilty of the charges against them, covering the league from 2009 to 2018. The butterfly effects from this ruling will trickle down to every club, because everyone has been affected by findings that started with a Portuguese hacker, Rui Pinto, who successfully phished a Manchester City official into opening a malicious link and handed over the club’s documents from that era. Regardless, there is a footy match to be played today, and from what Iraola has told us, Cody Gakpo and Alexander Isak are both unavailable. Jérémy Jacquet is fit and expected to play, and it will be a battle when City come into town this afternoon.

The 115: where the case actually stands

This is the first time the two clubs have met since the verdict, so it’s worth being precise about what was decided.

On 29 September the Premier League announced that an independent Commission had found Manchester City guilty of all charges relating to serious breaches of its financial rules over a nine-season period, and of three of the four charges relating to the club’s failure to co-operate with the League’s investigation. The League’s statement describes “sham” contracts and misstated accounts.

Two things have not happened yet. No sanction has been decided — the League says that “the issue of sanction will be addressed separately in a further hearing with the independent Commission.” And the verdict is under appeal: City lodged one on 1 October, calling the Commission’s findings unsafe, and under the Premier League’s own rules that appeal has to be heard within 12 weeks.

So: found guilty, punishment unknown, appeal pending. Anything you read about points deductions or expulsion is speculation until that sanction hearing reports.

For all of that, nothing changes what has happened on the pitch. The results went in the books, the trophies were lifted, and none of it gets replayed. All we can do is move on and beat them today.

City arrive with a perfect record

Five games, five wins, 15 points, and the only team in the division yet to drop any. They have scored 13 and conceded five.

The one crack: their last outing, a 5-3 home win over Sunderland in which they conceded 3.11 xG — more than anyone has managed against them all season, and more than they created themselves (2.67).

I would not read too much into that one, though. That was Brian Brobbey fighting in a battle and producing a stellar performance — he scored a hat-trick, the first by a player on the losing side in the Premier League since 2007 — more than it was City falling apart. Take his afternoon out of it and City win that game comfortably. It showed that City defense is leaky and are suspitbale to performances if they otber side is willing to fight for it.

Haaland, and the man who does the creating

Haaland leads every forward in the league for both non-penalty xG per 90 and goals per 90. Not second — first, in a pool of 25. Five goals in five games.

Behind him, Cherki has been the most creative player in the division on a per-90 basis: three goals, two assists and 12 key passes in only 313 minutes.

The plan has to be to control Haaland and make somebody else beat us. Stop the obvious one, live with the rest, and make them find a different way to win the game. This doesnt mean that the other players cant get it done but we need to make sure that haaland is not the one to beat us today.

Liverpool: unbeaten, but without their two best attackers

Liverpool are sixth on nine points, unbeaten, with two wins and three draws. Three straight league clean sheets went into the international break, and all four goals conceded this season came in the opening two games.

The problem is who isn’t available. Iraola confirmed that Isak (thigh) and Gakpo (ankle) both picked up injuries on international duty and miss this one. Between them they have been responsible for most of what Liverpool have produced: Isak is second among all 25 qualifying forwards for goals per 90, Gakpo is top ten of 98 midfielders for expected assists, and the pair have combined for four goals in five league games.

That is the attacking output Liverpool have to replace this afternoon, against the only unbeaten side in the league.

For me it is Rio Ngumoha and Víctor Muñoz who should come in for those two, with Lewis Koumas up top. None of them have the minutes behind them yet — Muñoz has 261 league minutes this season and a goal, Ngumoha 97, Koumas 21 — but this is the afternoon to find out. Koumas gave us exactly the kind of relentless, physical performance against Spurs that this game is going to ask for.

Iraola’s unbeaten league run stands at 23 games across two clubs.

The team news

Liverpool: Alisson; Araújo, Jacquet, Van Dijk, Kerkez; Gravenberch, Mac Allister; Muñoz, Wirtz, Barcola; Koumas.

Substitutes: Mamardashvili, Gomez, Endo, Chiesa, Tsimikas, Frimpong, Nyoni, McConnell, Ngumoha.

Koumas leads the line for his first Premier League start, with Muñoz and Barcola either side of Wirtz. Rio Ngumoha is among the substitutes.

No Sobo is concerning. Dominik Szoboszlai is absent from the matchday squad altogether, and the club has not given a reason for it — so I’ll be looking into what happened there. Everything else looks like the strongest XI available to us.

Prediction

2-1 Liverpool, with Rio and Koumas on the scoresheet.