Liverpool 0-0 Fulham: Failure to capitalize

The 1.80 comes with a footnote

Liverpool finished with 1.80 expected goals to Fulham’s 0.93, which reads like a one-sided afternoon. The timeline tells a different story: Fulham were level or ahead on cumulative xG until the 80th minute. Almost half of Liverpool’s total — 0.81 — came from two chances in the 90th minute and stoppage time. Much of that came from the final chance of the game: Frimpong whipped in a cross and Rio Ngumoha sent it over the bar. The entirety of the game was built on missed chances, with Liverpool unable to push Fulham into breaking their low block, frustratingly resulting in a draw.

Fulham came into the game with the worst defensive numbers in the division, having conceded 2.58, 1.56 and 2.36 xG in their opening three matches. They left Anfield with their first point of the season.

Liverpool need to be better here. It was opposition like this that they failed to take points from last season, specifically at home, where they need to win most of their games. This was most certainly a failure on Liverpool’s part to take advantage of this fixture, leaving points on the board going into the Carabao Cup tie next week.

Three chances, none on target

Liverpool had three chances worth 0.30 xG or more. Every one missed the target.

• Barcola, 42’ — 0.32 xG, open play
• Isak, 90’ — 0.47 xG from a corner, the best chance of the match
• Ngumoha, 90+3’ — 0.34 xG, open play

This wasn’t a goalkeeper stealing a point. Liverpool put just three of their fourteen shots on target — the same number as Fulham managed from a fraction of the quality.

Composure was lacking across the board. We couldn’t finish a ham sandwich into the back of the net, whether it was Muñoz’s header being saved or Wirtz pulling shots wide.

Szoboszlai ran the show

Szoboszlai created 1.00 expected assists on his own, from four key passes — more than double the creative output of any teammate.

Szobo was our most productive midfielder of the day, and was unfortunate not to earn an assist from the chances he created.

The lineup calls

The Premier League’s most productive creator by assists didn’t start. Gakpo came off the bench for the final half hour, and still leads all 88 Premier League midfielders for assists per 90.

Barcola, meanwhile, got his start on the left and played 73 minutes — including that 0.32 xG chance just before half time.

Gakpo needed a rest, as he had picked up a knock, and I will not judge Barcola just yet for not being effective, as he did not have the proper preseason training to be fully in form.

Isak: right places, wrong day

Isak had 0.63 xG from three shots, including that 0.47 chance at the death, and didn’t score. He has slipped from first to second among Premier League forwards for non-penalty xG per 90.

Across the season his finishing now sits almost exactly at expectation — the two low-xG goals at Ipswich and the misses here have roughly cancelled each other out.

Not worried. This was just a blip for Isak, and he will continue to flourish as the number 9 for Liverpool.

Where it leaves them

Four league games: one win, three draws, and down a place to 7th on six points. Liverpool have had the better of the xG in three of those four matches and won only one. At the other end, the defence has now kept back-to-back league clean sheets.

We need a strong performance next week away at the Vitality Stadium against Bournemouth, Iraola’s old club, to get back on track for a top-five Premier League finish this season.